Step by Step: Two Dozen Strategy for Roulette
Ten dollars on each of two dozen, 24 numbers covered, for fifty spins. Di two dozen strategy for roulette na di coverage bet wey dey win two spins out of three and still dey cost 2.70%.
One session wey we simulate for 50 spins with $10 on di first and second dozen. Thirty-one wins of $10, nineteen losses of $20 (third dozen or zero). Net −$70, afta e don go up reach $90. Di bet wey be like sey e safe becos e dey win often, and dem price am exactly like every oda one.
Di Plan: Di Two Dozen Strategy for Roulette
$10 on di first dozenbetDozen1–12, 13–24 or 25–36, e dey pay 2:1.Read di whole tin → and $10 on di second. Number from 1 to 24 go pay one dozen $20 and di oda $10 go lose: +$10. Number from 25 to 36, or zerowheelZeroDi one green pocket wey no even-money, dozen or column bet dey cover; na im be di source of di house edge. Dem also dey call am: single zero, 0.Read di whole tin →, go lose both: −$20. Expected valuemathsExpected valueDi average result for each bet for di long run. −1/37 of di stake for every standard European bet.Read di whole tin →: (24 × 10 − 13 × 20)/37 = −20/37 = −$0.54 for every spin, wey be 2.70% of $20. Win rate na 64.9%, and na dat figure dey sell di bet.
Spins 1–25
Eighteen wins, seven losses: +$180 − $140 = +$40. Di seven losses include zero one time and one run of three numbers from di third dozen for spins 11–13 wey cost $60 one afta di oda, and e be like di exception. Na di 35.1% wey come togeda for one clump, and na so clumps dey do.
Spins 26–50
Thirteen wins, twelve losses: +$130 − $240 = −$110. Twelve losses for 25 spins na event of 20%, e no rare. Di final na −$70; di highest na +$90 for spin 31. Di bet never produce big swing for any direction, becos di win na $10 and di loss na $20; e just dey grind.
- p10 −$500
- p25 −$500
- median −$280
- p75 −$40
- p90 +$170
Di Accounts
Di total wey we bet na $1,000 for 50 spins. Expected lossmathsExpected lossExpected value times di total moni wey you bet; di average amount wey you go lose for one session or one period.Read di whole tin → na $27; wetin happen na −$70, about one standard deviationmathsStandard deviationSquare root of variance; di normal distance between one result and di expected value.Read di whole tin → below (σ for every spin na about $14, so about $100 for 50 spins). Di same $20 on redbetRedEven-money bet on di 18 red numbers. For French: rouge.Read di whole tin → for get di same expectation and bigger σ, about $140 for di session: two dozen na way wey get lower variancemathsVarianceOne measure of how wide di results dey spread around di expected value. E high for straight up, e low for even-money bets.Read di whole tin → to lose di same amount.
Wetin Di Session Show
To cover 24 numbers dey make roulette feel like game wey you dey usually win, and you dey win: 64.9% of spins. Dem set di payoutmoniPayoutWetin bet wey win dey return, wey dem dey quote as “X to 1” on top di stake wey dem return.Read di whole tin → so dat di 35.1% wey you lose go cost double wetin di wins dey pay, and di layoutequipmentLayoutDi betting grid wey dem print for di table. Dem also dey call am: table, felt, cloth.Read di whole tin → tune di ratio to −1/37 of di total stake. Add one chipmoniChipToken wey stand for one fixed amount, wey you put on top di layout to make bet. Dem also dey call am: check.Read di whole tin → on zero for “insurance” and di blended edge still be 2.70%, becos dem price di insurance for 2.70% too. Di page “Problem: Two Dozen and One Chip” work am through.
Questions wey pipo dey ask
Di same arithmetic: 24 numbers, +1 unitmoniUnitDi base stake wey system or player dey work with. Dem dey describe progressions in units so dat dem go fit work for any table.Read di whole tin → when e hit, −2 when e miss. ColumnsbetColumnTwelve numbers for one column of di layout wey stand from up to down, e dey pay 2:1.Read di whole tin → dey spread di numbers wey dem cover across di wheel; dozens dey gather dem togeda for di layout. No one of dem matter.
E go cover 25 numbers; zero go now bring +$15 instead of −$20, and e go cost $1 for every spin. Di expected value na −$0.57 on $21, still 2.70%.
E be, and dem size di pay-off to match am. Most of di time you go win $10. Some of di time you go lose $20. Di average na di house edgemathsHouse edgeDi part of each stake wey di casino dey keep for average: 2.70% for European roulette.Read di whole tin →.
Small laugh
Win two spins out of three. Lose double for di third one. Di result na 2.70%.
Sources
- Ethier, S. N. The Doctrine of Chances: Probabilistic Aspects of Gambling.