Myth: Some Numbers Don Due
“Seventeen never show for 150 spins. E don due.” E never due.
Number wey never show for long time get exactly di same chance for di next spin as any oda one: 1/37. Di belief sey e “don due” na di gambler fallacy with results board for im side.
Di Claim
Casinos dey show di last 20 to 500 results and dem dey often mark “cold” numbers wey never hit for some time. Players dey read di board, see sey 17 never show for 150 spins, and bet am becos e must don due. Di reasoning be sey for di long run every number dey hit 1/37 of di time, so number wey dey behind must catch up.
Why E Wrong
Spins no dey depend on each oda. Di ballequipmentBallDi small ball wey dem dey throw for di track against di rotor. Modern balls na ivorine or Teflon, 18–21 mm.Read di whole tin → no sabi sey 17 never show, and di pocketequipmentPocketOne of di 37 small boxes wey get number for di rotor. Dem also dey call am: slot, cup.Read di whole tin → still get di same size wey e get before. Di long-run proportion dey come close by dilution, no be by correction: afta anoda 10,000 spins, di gap of 150 spins go be rounding error, no be becos 17 hit extra often but becos di sample grow. Di law of large numbersmathsLaw of large numbersDi average of results wey no depend on each oda dey move near di expected value as di number of tries dey grow.Read di whole tin → no need any number to catch up; e only need sey past fluctuations go become small compared to di total.
Why E Be Like Sey E Correct
Becos for every oda part of life, if tin never come, e mean sey e go soon come: bus wey never come for twenty minutes get more chance to come for di next five. Dat one na becos buses get schedule. Roulette no get schedule; e get probabilitymathsProbabilityDi chance of one outcome, from 0 to 1 or from 0% to 100%. One number: 1/37 = 2.70%.Read di whole tin →, and probability no be quota. Di feeling correct for most of di world, but e wrong for di wheel.
Di Test
Record one hundred “cold” numbers from results boards and bet each one for di next 37 spins. Di hit rate go be 1/37 for every spin, di same as any number wey you choose at random, plus or minus noise. Di results board na description of di past. E no fit predict anytin for fair wheel, and for biased wheellabBiased wheelWheel wey get physical defect wey make some pockets come out pass 1/37. E rare, and you fit only find am with thousands of spins wey you record.Read di whole tin → (wey go need thousands of spins to prove), na di hot numbersmythHot numberNumber wey don show pass wetin dem expect recently. For fair wheel e no dey predict anytin.Read di whole tin →, no be di cold ones, you go bet.
Di Inverse Myth
“Seventeen dey hot, bet am” na di same mistake wey dem flip di sign. Both beliefs get di same expected valuemathsExpected valueDi average result for each bet for di long run. −1/37 of di stake for every standard European bet.Read di whole tin → as to close your eyes and point: −2.70% of di stake. For di demo game, run di history and count how often cold numbermythCold numberNumber wey never show for many spins. For fair wheel, e no carry any information about di spins wey dey come.Read di whole tin → dey hit for di next 37 spins; di answer na around 63.7%, exactly as for any oda number.
Questions wey pipo dey ask
E dey show dem becos players dey ask. Di board correct, but e no get use.
(36/37)⁵⁰⁰ ≈ 0.0001%: e rare, and e still be 1/37 for di next spin. If e dey happen again and again for one wheel, dat one na bias question, and di answer go be to avoid dat number.
No.
Small laugh
Probability no be quota.
Sources
- Feller, W. An Introduction to Probability Theory and Its Applications, Vol. 1.
- Ethier, S. N. The Doctrine of Chances: Probabilistic Aspects of Gambling.