Tools · Calculator

Calculator for Risk of Ruin

Di probability sey you go reach your profit target before you lose di bankroll, if you dey bet flat on even money.

Bankroll

Bet

Target

you reach di target

24.6%

you lose everytin first

75.4%

target

+$250

units (a / b)

50 / 25

spins wey we expect before e finish

1,168

EV of di attempt

−$315.70

How to read di result

If you dey bet $10 at a time, you get 24.6% chance to turn $500 into $750 before your moni finish. Bigger bets dey raise dat probability becos fewer spins mean you go pay di 2.70% toll fewer times; but dem dey make di ride rough pass. Try $100 bets against $5 bets to see wetin go happen.

Method and wetin we assume

Gambler ruin with p = 18/37: P(target) = (1 − (q/p)ᵃ)/(1 − (q/p)ᵃ⁺ᵇ), a = bankroll/bet, b = target/bet. Di time wey we expect e go take: a/(q−p) − (a+b)·P/(q−p). Na only flat even-money bets.