Joseph Jagger: Di Roulette Strategy for Monte Carlo
One textile man from Yorkshire, wheels wey dey favour some numbers, and one story wey dem first print twenty years late.
Joseph Hobson Jagger (1830–1892), textile businessman from near Bradford, na im pipo tok sey e win about £80,000 for Monte Carlo around 1880 as e make pipo record di wheels and e bet di numbers wey dey show too often. No newspaper or casino record of di win remain. Di story stand on one book of 1901, on family tradition and on one presentation key wey get date 1884.
Wetin di records show
Dem born Joseph Hobson Jagger on 2 September 1830 for Shelf, between Bradford and Halifax. E marry Matilda Townend when e be twenty and dem get four children. E work for di cloth trade all im life: as warehouseman, as partner for one works wey dey size warp yarn, as cloth finisher for Manchester. Di 1861 census call am cotton and stuff agent, and im will of 1881 call am manufacturer. No document call am engineer. Dat word, and “mechanic”, come from di books about Monte Carlo.
For April 1860 im business for Manchester fail, and di London Gazette list am among di debtors wey no fit pay, wey court go hear for Lancaster Castle. Im last pikin dey two years. Im biographer Anne Fletcher, im great-great-great-niece and heritage historian, find di notices and find sey di family still dey pay debts fifteen years later. She no find any bankruptcy for 1880 or 1881, even though plenty newspapers don put one there since.
Di story as dem first print am
Di oldest account na Monte Carlo Anecdotes and Systems of Play (1901) by Victor Bethell. Bethell call am “Jaggers”, man from Yorkshire and mechanic by trade, and e no give first name or year. For im own version, Jaggers hire six clerks, sit dem for different tables to write down every number all day, and afta one month e don find weak spot for every wheel. Im and im men win £120,000. Di casino begin move di wheels from table to table every night, and Jaggers dey use small marks, one scratch or one small spot for di paint, to sabi which be which. E lose £40,000 of di winnings and leave wit about £80,000, wey for di 25 francs to one pound of dat time na two million francs. Di only date wey Bethell give na sey all dis happen “more pass twenty years ago”.
Bethell dey write two decades afta di event and e no name any witness. Fletcher search di local, national and foreign press and no find any report of di win, and when her papa write di casino, dem tell am sey dem don destroy di papers of dat period.
How di story grow
Each writer wey come later add sometin, and di tins wey dem add na wetin most pipo sabi.
When e dey there
Fletcher put di first visit for 1880 or 1881 from four pieces of evidence. Jagger no dey for im own house for di census of April 1881, where dem write im wife as di head. One deed of August 1881 name am for 6 Greaves Street, Bradford, one house wey e buy dat year, and for October e make di will of man wey get property. Di fourth na di only object wey remain, one key for remembrance inside presentation box, wey di family keep. Di writing on top, from im “friends and admirers”, tok about im success for roulette against di bank for Monte Carlo “wey cover four years”, and di date na 1 May 1884.
Fletcher read am as many visits between about 1880 and 1884, no be one week. How long e watch, and how long e play, nobody record am anywhere.
Who follow am go
Notin support di six clerks of Bethell, and Fletcher note sey di room get only four or five roulette tables dat time. One family tradition, wey one friend wey don see letters wey dem later destroy write down, na sey im first son Alfred follow am go. Fletcher add one nephew, Oates Jagger, railway engine driver, becos of di moni wey e later get wey nobody fit explain; dat one na her own guess. Anoda side of di family always tok sey e go wit im foreman. Di moni for di trip na loan from relatives, and dem name one of dem, one cousin, as person wey dem pay back.
Wetin di casino do
Here too, Bethell na di first source. E tok sey di casino start by moving di wheels from table to table every night, and when dat one fail, e send one man go di Paris company wey make dem. Di company build new set of wheels wit partitions wey dem fit move, so sey pocketequipmentPocketOne of di 37 small boxes wey get number for di rotor. Dem also dey call am: slot, cup.Read di whole tin → wey stand opposite di zerowheelZeroDi one green pocket wey no even-money, dozen or column bet dey cover; na im be di source of di house edge. Dem also dey call am: single zero, 0.Read di whole tin → one day fit stand anoda place di next day. Polovtsoff, wey be di head of di International Sporting Club for Monte Carlo for di 1930s, tok di same tin: new wheels wit parts wey dem fit change, wey dem dey shuffle every day. Dem replace di old wheels, dem no repair dem.
Morning check of every wheel wit spirit level get good evidence. Adolphe Smith watch am around 1912, and Polovtsoff describe am for 1937. No one of dem tok sey e start wit Jagger, and no casino document join any of dis measures to am.
Casino de Monte-CarloHow to Measure Wheel with Hand and Tools
How big bias must be
Di Joseph Jagger roulette strategy, as di story tell am, na to bet di numbers wey one wheel dey favour, and dat one dey pay only when e pass one level. Straight upbetStraight upOne single number, e dey pay 35:1.Read di whole tin → dey pay 35 to 1, so one number must win more often pass once in 36 spins before bet on am fit bring anytin. For fair single-zero wheel, e dey win once in 37.
Make we say di clerks record one wheel for one month, 500 spins every day: 15,000 spins. Fair number go show about 405 times, plus or minus 20. Number wey show 465 times go dey three of dose “plus or minus” ahead, and luck alone almost never dey do dat. Such number dey win about once in 32 spins, and bet on am dey bring 11.6%: 36 chipsmoniChipToken wey stand for one fixed amount, wey you put on top di layout to make bet. Dem also dey call am: check.Read di whole tin → back for every 32.3 wey you stake. One month of patient counting reach to find fault of dat size, but e no reach to find one wey small pass am well well. Di 500 spins every day na assumption for di calculation; nobody record how fast dose tables dey run.
Afta
Jagger no buy mansion. For 1881 e buy 6 Greaves Street for Little Horton, Bradford, and for di next ten years or so, as Fletcher count am, at least thirty-two terraced houses near there, wey e rent out or wey relatives live inside. She believe sey e give about one third of di moni to di two men wey follow am go. No sign show sey e ever make di win public. E die for 25 Greaves Street on 25 April 1892, when e be 61; di death certificate tok diabetes. Dem bury am for Bethel Chapel for Shelf, near where dem born am. Di net value of im property na £1,710.
Di song
“The Man Who Broke the Bank at Monte Carlo” na for 1892 pipo first sing am, di year wey Jagger die, and im family believe for long time sey na about am. E no be. Fred Gilbert write am afta di run of Charles Wells for 1891, wey full di newspapers (see Di Man Wey Break Di Bank). Charles Kingston tok di same tin for 1925: di honour go to di swindler wey come afta di man from Yorkshire.
Questions wey pipo dey ask
E fit be sey e win big moni: di key of di family from 1884, how e suddenly begin buy property, and di account of Bethell all point dat way. Di sums, di six clerks and di nine numbers, nobody fit confirm dem.
Fletcher tok only sey genealogists don suggest far link. Nobody don publish family tree wey show am.
Im property na £1,710 net. By dat time, as Fletcher tok am, di moni don go inside houses and gifts to im family.
Small laugh
Di win leave one key and one line of houses. Di details come later.
Sources
- Fletcher, A. From the Mill to Monte Carlo.
- Fletcher, A. “The true story of the man who broke the Monte Carlo bank: Joseph Hobson Jagger.”
- Bethell, V. Monte Carlo Anecdotes and Systems of Play.
- Kingston, C. The Romance of Monte Carlo.
- Polovtsoff, P. Monte Carlo Casino.
- Smith, A. Monaco and Monte Carlo.
- Quinn, R. The Man Who Broke the Bank at Monte Carlo.